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Heute habe ich im Thread "Fehlerfrei herauskomplimentiert" über den kuriosen Kartenfall einer bestimmten Online-Seite gesprochen (übrigens: es ist nicht Trio). Ebenfalls heute habe ich am Telefon mit Micha von der PA über dieses Thema gesprochen und während unserer Diskussion mein Gefühl geäußert, dass die Softwareprogrammierer dem so genannten "3-Outer" ungeheure Sympathie entgegengebracht haben müssen. Es war nur gefühlt, aber ich habe Micha versprochen, mir von allen 19 Turnieren alle Hände anzusehen und all jene herauszusuchen, auf die folgende Voraussetzung zutraf:

- 2 Gegner (Headsup-Situation)
- Ein All in vor dem Riverfall
- Unterlegene Hand hat (vereinfacht) nur 3 Outs

Der letzte Punkt (der so genannte "3-Outer") kommt in 5 Varianten vor:

a.) dominierte Top-Karte nach dem Muster: 1-2 vs. 1-3 (z.B. AK vs. AJ)
b.) dominierte Top-Karte nach dem Muster: 1-2 vs. 2-3 (z.B. AK vs. KQ)
c.) dominierter Kicker nach dem Muster: 1-3 vs. 2-3 (z.B. AQ vs. KQ)
d.) Paar im Sandwich nach dem Muster: 2-2 vs. 1-3 (z.B. KK vs. AQ)
e.) Paar dominiert Kicker nach dem Muster: 2-2 vs. 1-2 (z.B. KK vs. AK)

Achtung: Das Muster 2-2 vs. 2-3 ist kein 3-Outer, weil die unterlegene Hand weniger als 3 Outs hat (der Kicker müsste schon zweimal getroffen werden).

Die jeweils unterlegene Hand hat (vereinfacht) folgende Preflop-Chancen:

a.) 24%
b.) 25%
c.) 25%
d.) 28%
e.) 30%

Also zwischen 24 und 30%. Nehmen wir einen Schnitt von 27%.

Nun: Ich habe tatsächlich in allen 19 gespielten Turnieren alle Hände nach diesen Situationen durchforstet, unabhängig davon, ob ich selbst beteiligt war oder nicht. So genannte 3-Outer-Situationen, wie oben definiert, kamen in insgesamt 26 Händen vor. Gemäß statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit (27%) hätten also exakt 7 mal die 3-Outer gewinnen müssen. Sie haben sage und schreibe 15 mal (57%) den Sieg davon getragen. Zugegeben: Schwankungen gegenüber der Statistik sind bei der kleinen Datenmenge wahrscheinlich. Aber ich finde, die Tatsache, dass 27%-Hände in 57% der Fälle gewannen (im Rahmen einer Stichprobe), ist eine so deutliche Abweichung, dass die Bezeichnung "Schwankung" eine sehr wohlwollende Umschreibung ist. Ich jedenfalls habe keinerlei Vertrauen in die Kartenverteil-Software dieser besagten Seite. (By the way: In alle anderen auch nicht, aber bei den meisten, die ich kennenlernte, bewegt sich der programmierte Underdog-Support noch in einem für einen profitabel spielenden Spieler bezahlbaren, nicht ganz so offensichtlichen, Rahmen und kann als gelegentlicher Soli-Zuschlag zum Erhalt des Fischtümpels verkraftet werden. Aber auf dieser besagten Seite hat man dieses Instrument in Zeiten der Profitmaximierung etwas zu deutlich übertrieben).

Hier alle 26 Hände:

Hand #2125640760 begins at 2009/03/18
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [3d Kc]
WhenIHoundehoun posts the small blind of 300
Mavericklv posts the big blind of 600
matt672 folds.
ArthurPewtey3 folds.
jipus folds.
nenef folds.
Athos1964 raises to 1,420, and is all-in.
WhenIHoundehoun calls 1,110, and is all-in.
Mavericklv folds.
Dealing Flop [6c As 7c]
Dealing Turn [Jd]
Dealing River [3s]
WhenIHoundehoun shows [Qd Ks]
WhenIHoundehoun has High Card, Ace
WhenIHoundehoun shows [Qd Ks]
WhenIHoundehoun has High Card, Ace
Athos1964 wins 3,420

Hand #2124652702 begins at 2009/03/17
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [7h 9h]
RCFGWTHKQANH posts the small blind of 150
jobchow posts the big blind of 300
NAKAJL13 folds.
tinu21 folds.
motopker folds.
marianne5 raises to 1,220, and is all-in.
doubleupdoot folds.
Canybus folds.
oksaxa folds.
Athos1964 folds.
RCFGWTHKQANH calls 940, and is all-in.
jobchow folds.
Dealing Flop [4h 3c Kd]
Dealing Turn [7c]
Dealing River [5s]
RCFGWTHKQANH shows [8d Ad]
RCFGWTHKQANH has High Card, Ace
marianne5 shows [As 4s]
marianne5 has One Pair, Fours
marianne5 wins 2,480

Hand #2124673190 begins at 2009/03/17
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Ts 2c]
jobchow posts the small blind of 300
NAKAJL13 posts the big blind of 600
motopker folds.
marianne5 folds.
doubleupdoot calls 585, and is all-in.
Canybus folds.
oksaxa folds.
Athos1964 folds.
jobchow folds.
Dealing Flop [Ac Jh Qh]
Dealing Turn [3h]
Dealing River [Ks]
NAKAJL13 shows [5h 8h]
NAKAJL13 has Flush, Queen High
doubleupdoot shows [5c Ad]
doubleupdoot has One Pair, Aces
NAKAJL13 wins 1,470

Hand #2125621772 begins at 2009/03/18
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [3d Ks]
P4rsons posts the small blind of 100
WhenIHoundehoun posts the big blind of 200
Athos1964 folds.
TheBudgie folds.
budgie369 folds.
Minorex19xx folds.
Karla69 folds.
jipus folds.
26martin folds.
ArthurPewtey3 folds.
P4rsons raises to 1,350, and is all-in.
WhenIHoundehoun calls 1,150.
Dealing Flop [9d 6c 7h]
Dealing Turn [5c]
Dealing River [Qs]
P4rsons shows [Jh Ah]
P4rsons has High Card, Ace
WhenIHoundehoun shows [8s As]
WhenIHoundehoun has Straight, Nine High
WhenIHoundehoun wins 2,700

Hand #2125628036 begins at 2009/03/18
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Ts Qd]
TheBudgie posts the small blind of 150
budgie369 posts the big blind of 300
Minorex19xx folds.
Karla69 folds.
jipus folds.
26martin folds.
ArthurPewtey3 folds.
WhenIHoundehoun folds.
Athos1964 raises to 650, and is all-in.
TheBudgie folds.
budgie369 calls 350.
Dealing Flop [5s 3s 2c]
Dealing Turn [8s]
Dealing River [4d]
budgie369 shows [2d Qh]
budgie369 has One Pair, Twos
budgie369 wins 1,450

Hand #2125789858 begins at 2009/03/18
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [8s 7h]
Athos1964 posts the small blind of 200
frankyking1979 posts the big blind of 400
motopker raises to 1,400, and is all-in.
SkyJoint folds.
Gsahan folds.
rudedogg84 folds.
matt672 folds.
Athos1964 folds.
frankyking1979 calls 1,000.
Dealing Flop [3d 5c 8c]
Dealing Turn [8d]
Dealing River [2s]
frankyking1979 shows [Qc Ah]
frankyking1979 has One Pair, Eights
motopker shows [Ks As]
motopker has One Pair, Eights
motopker wins 3,000

Hand #2125803481 begins at 2009/03/18
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [6h Kd]
SkyJoint posts the small blind of 300
Gsahan posts the big blind of 600
matt672 raises to 1,150, and is all-in.
Athos1964 folds.
frankyking1979 calls 1,150.
motopker folds.
SkyJoint folds.
Gsahan folds.
Dealing Flop [8h Qh 5h]
Dealing Turn [9h]
Dealing River [Kc]
matt672 shows [As Jc]
matt672 has High Card, Ace
frankyking1979 shows [Ac Qs]
frankyking1979 has One Pair, Queens
frankyking1979 wins 3,200

Hand #2127980263 begins at 2009/03/19
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [2s 3c]
raffyk posts the small blind of 50
graziegray posts the big blind of 100
cashsystem folds.
1qxq1 folds.
expekt3543935 folds.
Athos1964 folds.
perrot06 folds.
0vini0 folds.
ballin90 folds.
Lapleser folds.
raffyk raises to 200.
graziegray raises to 1,100, and is all-in.
raffyk calls 900.
Dealing Flop [8d 3s 9d]
Dealing Turn [Td]
Dealing River [6s]
raffyk shows [As 2h]
raffyk has High Card, Ace
graziegray shows [7d Ad]
graziegray has Flush, Ace High
graziegray wins 2,200

Hand #2129988337 begins at 2009/03/20
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Tc 9s]
Alexej86 posts the small blind of 100
Mi8Star posts the big blind of 200
elCari folds.
jaman86 folds.
trader609 folds.
Athos1964 folds.
ppker222 folds.
1zu0 raises to 1,240, and is all-in.
Alexej86 folds.
Mi8Star calls 1,040.
Dealing Flop [Js 6c Td]
Dealing Turn [Qd]
Dealing River [3c]
Mi8Star shows [Kc Ad]
Mi8Star has Straight, Ace High
1zu0 shows [Ah Jd]
1zu0 has One Pair, Jacks
Mi8Star wins 2,580

Hand #2129997426 begins at 2009/03/20
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [6s 6h]
trader609 posts the small blind of 150
Athos1964 posts the big blind of 300
ppker222 folds.
Alexej86 folds.
Mi8Star folds.
elCari folds.
trader609 raises to 900.
Athos1964 raises to 4,930, and is all-in.
trader609 calls 170, and is all-in.
Dealing Flop [8h Qh Ac]
Dealing Turn [2h]
Dealing River [Ad]
trader609 shows [3h 9d]
trader609 has One Pair, Aces
trader609 shows [3h 9d]
trader609 has One Pair, Aces
Athos1964 wins 2,140

Hand #2132435592 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Qd 4s]
kaplamas posts the small blind of 10
falstaff81 posts the big blind of 20
Gsahan raises to 100.
sunapple folds.
ciumeg folds.
miasnik84 folds.
jytte123 folds.
Athos1964 folds.
kakaDUR folds.
stepspumpsi raises to 1,500, and is all-in.
kaplamas folds.
falstaff81 folds.
Gsahan calls 1,400, and is all-in.
Dealing Flop [8s Tc 7s]
Dealing Turn [3s]
Dealing River [Td]
Gsahan shows [Kc Kh]
Gsahan has Two Pair, Kings and Tens
stepspumpsi shows [Qh As]
stepspumpsi has One Pair, Tens
Gsahan wins 3,030

Hand #2132470205 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Kc 6c]
kakaDUR posts the small blind of 50
Gsahan posts the big blind of 100
Athos1964 folds.
kerberossiossi folds.
maruzs55 calls 100.
nakedguru folds.
sunapple raises to 2,230, and is all-in.
flushdu76 folds.
Marty1988 folds.
kakaDUR folds.
Gsahan folds.
maruzs55 calls 1,130, and is all-in.
Dealing Flop [Qc Qd 9s]
Dealing Turn [Js]
Dealing River [4c]
maruzs55 shows [Kd Jc]
maruzs55 has Two Pair, Queens and Jacks
sunapple shows [Ac Ks]
sunapple has One Pair, Queens
maruzs55 wins 2,610

Hand #2132474845 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Qc Kh]
kerberossiossi posts the small blind of 100
maruzs55 posts the big blind of 200
nakedguru folds.
sunapple folds.
flushdu76 folds.
Marty1988 folds.
kakaDUR folds.
Gsahan folds.
Athos1964 raises to 600.
kerberossiossi folds.
maruzs55 calls 400.
Dealing Flop [4s Qs Jd]
maruzs55 checks.
Athos1964 bets 1,410, and is all-in.
maruzs55 calls 1,410.
Dealing Turn [7s]
Dealing River [Td]
maruzs55 shows [Js Qd]
maruzs55 has Two Pair, Queens and Jacks
maruzs55 wins 4,120

Hand #2132511433 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Jh 3s]
nnrs69300 posts the small blind of 30
Torzie posts the big blind of 60
zloba777 raises to 180.
vinen folds.
Bigred6921 calls 55, and is all-in.
loot666 folds.
Athos1964 folds.
min2kas folds.
xerif folds.
PokFuk folds.
nnrs69300 folds.
Torzie folds.
Dealing Flop [Jc 7h 9d]
Dealing Turn [2h]
Dealing River [5h]
zloba777 shows [Ah Jd]
zloba777 has One Pair, Jacks
Bigred6921 shows [6s Js]
Bigred6921 has One Pair, Jacks
zloba777 wins 205

Hand #2132520495 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Qs As]
min2kas posts the small blind of 50
xerif posts the big blind of 100
PokFuk raises to 1,200, and is all-in.
nnrs69300 folds.
Torzie folds.
zloba777 folds.
vinen folds.
loot666 folds.
Athos1964 calls 1,200.
min2kas folds.
xerif folds.
Dealing Flop [Kh Th 3c]
Dealing Turn [8h]
Dealing River [8c]
PokFuk shows [Ah Kc]
PokFuk has Two Pair, Kings and Eights
PokFuk wins 2,550

Hand #2132524269 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [8d 8s]
PokFuk posts the small blind of 100
nnrs69300 posts the big blind of 200
Torzie folds.
zloba777 folds.
vinen folds.
loot666 folds.
Athos1964 calls 160, and is all-in.
min2kas raises to 1,095, and is all-in.
xerif folds.
PokFuk folds.
nnrs69300 folds.
Dealing Flop [Jd 4h 7c]
Dealing Turn [8c]
Dealing River [7h]
min2kas shows [Ac 5h]
min2kas has One Pair, Sevens
Athos1964 wins 580
min2kas wins 80

Hand #2132611580 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [2h Qd]
Athos1964 posts the small blind of 200
sunapple posts the big blind of 400
YOOL10 calls 330, and is all-in.
DogBoemer folds.
1qxq1 folds.
godavy folds.
De12Kokov folds.
NeverDying raises to 1,140, and is all-in.
GUSTEAU folds.
Athos1964 folds.
sunapple folds.
Dealing Flop [4h 7c Qh]
Dealing Turn [9s]
Dealing River [Tc]
YOOL10 shows [Ks Ad]
YOOL10 has High Card, Ace
NeverDying shows [Ac Qs]
NeverDying has One Pair, Queens
NeverDying wins 1,330

Hand #2132614677 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [8h 9d]
DogBoemer posts the small blind of 200
1qxq1 posts the big blind of 400
godavy raises to 800.
De12Kokov folds.
NeverDying folds.
GUSTEAU folds.
Athos1964 folds.
sunapple folds.
DogBoemer raises to 1,190, and is all-in.
1qxq1 folds.
godavy calls 390.
Dealing Flop [4d 6s Kc]
Dealing Turn [4s]
Dealing River [3c]
DogBoemer shows [7s Ks]
DogBoemer has Two Pair, Kings and Fours
godavy shows [Qc Qs]
godavy has Two Pair, Queens and Fours
DogBoemer wins 2,780

Hand #2132621634 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Tc Ts]
GUSTEAU posts the small blind of 300
Athos1964 posts the big blind of 600
sunapple folds.
DogBoemer folds.
1qxq1 folds.
De12Kokov folds.
NeverDying raises to 1,170, and is all-in.
GUSTEAU folds.
Athos1964 calls 570.
Dealing Flop [Qh Ah Kd]
Dealing Turn [7s]
Dealing River [Jh]
NeverDying shows [8c As]
NeverDying has One Pair, Aces
Athos1964 wins 2,640

Hand #2132624461 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [9s Qd]
sunapple posts the small blind of 300
DogBoemer posts the big blind of 600
1qxq1 raises to 670, and is all-in.
De12Kokov calls 670.
GUSTEAU folds.
Athos1964 folds.
sunapple folds.
DogBoemer calls 70.
Dealing Flop [9h 3h 2c]
DogBoemer checks.
De12Kokov checks.
Dealing Turn [7h]
DogBoemer bets 600.
De12Kokov folds.
Dealing River [5c]
DogBoemer shows [2h Ah]
DogBoemer has Flush, Ace High
1qxq1 shows [Js As]
1qxq1 has High Card, Ace
DogBoemer wins 2,310

Hand #2132541495 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [5c 9h]
zloba777 posts the small blind of 30
coulobre33 posts the big blind of 60
MineiroBH folds.
zammyg folds.
zdzd365 raises to 120.
Athos1964 folds.
82lizard folds.
Missisippi calls 120.
sunapple folds.
zloba777 folds.
coulobre33 raises to 1,580, and is all-in.
zdzd365 raises to 2,390, and is all-in.
Missisippi folds.
Dealing Flop [8d Kc 4d]
Dealing Turn [9d]
Dealing River [3h]
coulobre33 shows [Ks Ac]
coulobre33 has One Pair, Kings
zdzd365 shows [Kd Kh]
zdzd365 has Three of a Kind, Kings
zdzd365 wins 3,310

Hand #2132725056 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Ad Js]
mikebibi posts the small blind of 200
Athos1964 posts the big blind of 400
WebDrain folds.
xPechax raises to 940, and is all-in.
manuellll folds.
Mario747 folds.
Fr0leg folds.
how2doit folds.
zz24 folds.
mikebibi folds.
Athos1964 calls 540.
Dealing Flop [Th 7s Qs]
Dealing Turn [8h]
Dealing River [3h]
xPechax shows [Jc Qc]
xPechax has One Pair, Queens
xPechax wins 2,080

Hand #2132727244 begins at 2009/03/21
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [6h 8h]
Athos1964 posts the small blind of 200
WebDrain posts the big blind of 400
xPechax folds.
manuellll folds.
Mario747 folds.
Fr0leg folds.
how2doit folds.
zz24 folds.
mikebibi raises to 800.
Athos1964 folds.
WebDrain raises to 3,380, and is all-in.
mikebibi calls 610, and is all-in.
Dealing Flop [4d 2d Kd]
Dealing Turn [Js]
Dealing River [As]
WebDrain shows [Ks Kc]
WebDrain has Three of a Kind, Kings
mikebibi shows [5d Ad]
mikebibi has Flush, Ace High
mikebibi wins 3,020

Hand #2133736592 begins at 2009/03/22
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [2h 7c]
Haliaf posts the small blind of 20
fullas64 posts the big blind of 40
1qxq1 folds.
CompleteNoob raises to 60, and is all-in.
Athos1964 folds.
Torzie folds.
sHaDeChriZ folds.
piojo23 calls 60.
msbertaine folds.
banjo2501 folds.
Haliaf folds.
fullas64 folds.
Dealing Flop [5h Ac Jd]
Dealing Turn [3h]
Dealing River [4s]
CompleteNoob shows [Qh Kc]
CompleteNoob has High Card, Ace
piojo23 shows [Jc Qc]
piojo23 has One Pair, Jacks
piojo23 wins 180

Hand #2133768930 begins at 2009/03/22
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Qc Jc]
piojo23 posts the small blind of 200
msbertaine posts the big blind of 400
banjo2501 folds.
Haliaf raises to 1,298, and is all-in.
fullas64 folds.
1qxq1 folds.
Athos1964 folds.
piojo23 folds.
msbertaine calls 286, and is all-in.
Dealing Flop [Td 6d 8d]
Dealing Turn [2c]
Dealing River [Kh]
msbertaine shows [7c Ks]
msbertaine has One Pair, Kings
Haliaf shows [As 7d]
Haliaf has High Card, Ace
msbertaine wins 1,572

Hand #2133829778 begins at 2009/03/22
Dealing down cards
Dealt to Athos1964 [Tc 9c]
Athos1964 posts the small blind of 30
ArmesGesicht posts the big blind of 60
lesoudoyeur folds.
1qxq1 folds.
guillen1980 folds.
kerberossiossi folds.
Elle11222 folds.
TerryMac345 calls 60.
Minoan518 folds.
Athos1964 raises to 720, and is all-in.
ArmesGesicht folds.
TerryMac345 calls 660.
Dealing Flop [Ac 7s 6s]
Dealing Turn [Qc]
Dealing River [8h]
TerryMac345 shows [Ah Th]
TerryMac345 has One Pair, Aces
Athos1964 wins 1,500